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Traduction : la BCE pourrait environ 20 % moins cher que leur valeur initiale, les 35 à [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] 55 milliards d'euros d'emprunts grecs qu'elle détient, pense Natacha Valla, économiste chez Goldman [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] Sachs. L'acheteur serait le Fonds européen de stabilité financière (FESF), créé pour les Etats de la zone euro en difficulté.
Le Monde.fr a le plaisir de vous la lecture de cet article habituellement réservé aux abonnés du Monde.fr.Profitez de tous les articles réservés du Monde.fr en
La contribution sera modeste : la BCE ne gommera [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] sans doute qu'une dizaine de milliards d'euros sur une créance de plus de 350 milliards. Mais ce qui compte, c'est que l'autorité monétaire [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] fait un geste pour éviter une faillite désordonnée du pays, sans les traités qui lui interdisent de un Etat.
Et si la BCE n'en fait pas plus, c'est qu'"elle [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] a [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] aussi d'autres à fouetter", estime Bruno [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] Cavalier, chez Oddo. Sa priorité est de les banques, emportées par la crise, pour éviter que le crédit ne s'assèche en zone euro et ne grippe l'économie. Pour y remédier, M. Draghi a indiqué que les établissements bancaires de [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] certains pays membres, dont la France, auront accès plus facilement aux liquidités de la banque centrale.
Comment ? M. Draghi est resté vague, mais a donné assez d'indices aux experts pour qu'ils aient une idée de sa tactique : si le portefeuille [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] d'obligations de l'Etat grec, que détient la BCE, recèle des plus-values latentes, elle pourrait les à ses membres sans les [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] traités, a-t-il expliqué.
SACRIFICES
En cas de remboursement de ces emprunts par la Grèce, l'autorité monétaire aurait fait des profits de l'ordre de 10 milliards d'euros. En acceptant de à ses gains, tout en refusant des pertes, la banque [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] centrale soulage la Grèce, sans les défenseurs de l'orthodoxie monétaire, tels les Allemands.
Cette mesure s'ajoutera [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] au second round [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] de prêts à trois ans à prix d'ami accordés aux banques, prévu le 29 février. Une opération qui attirera autant que la précédente en décembre, prédit M. Draghi. Les banques avaient alors emprunté 489 milliards d'euros.
L'opération serait neutre pour la BCE, qui a acheté ses emprunts sur le marché à de mai 2010, époque où la dette hellène était déjà un produit maudit [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] : les investisseurs cherchaient à s'en défaire et la banque centrale a récupéré des titres 10 %, 20 % ou [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] 25 % moins chers que leur valeur d'origine.
, mais à sa fa?on. Jeudi 9 février, à l'issue de de son comité de monétaire, Mario Draghi, le président de la BCE, a laissé que l'institution monétaire pourrait alléger la dette du pays.
La BCE joue un jeu "assez fin", observe Mme Valla. Même modique, cette contribution est cruciale. Elle devrait les créanciers privés d'Athènes. Ces derniers, qui doivent 70 % sur la valeur globale initiale de leur créance, et ainsi 100 milliards de dette grecque, ne voulaient pas être les seuls à des sacrifices.
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