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La réforme vise à les taux d'emploi des ?ges élevés. Selon nos estimations, en 2040, le taux d'activité des 55-64 ans pourrait 55 %, mais l'équilibre financier du régime [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] de base ne serait pas assuré pour autant.
Ces économies représentent la réduction du nombre de prestations à par les caisses de retraite. Tiennent-elles compte de la situation de l' ?
Non. [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] Vu la dégradation du rapport démographique (rapport cotisants-retraités), les transferts entre cotisations de l'assurance-ch?mage et l'assurance-vieillesse, qui dépendent [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] de l'assainissement du marché du travail, sont indispensables au rééquilibrage [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] du système. Elles sont autant de ressources supplémentaires pour les régimes par répartition.
Le taux d'emploi des seniors est, en France, inférieur à la moyenne européenne. Quelle amélioration de la [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] réforme ?
Mais la loi de 2003 réformant les retraites a bouleversé la donne, non pas par son action sur le nombre des cotisants, mais par le transfert de financement qu'elle a établi entre l'assurance-ch?mage et l'assurance-vieillesse.
Dans ce cas, l'équilibre financier du régime général se dégraderait vite et conduirait à un déficit [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] de l'ordre de 40 milliards d'euros constants en 2035.
Mais au-delà de ce terme, les déficits se creuseraient à nouveau pour 25 milliards d'euros constants à l'horizon 2035. Quant aux récentes mesures, elles représentent 4,4 milliards en cumul d'ici à 2016.
Un retour à l'équilibre des régimes de retraite est-il possible sans amélioration du taux d'emploi ?
Il est admis que le ch?mage n'a pas d'impact majeur sur l'équilibre d'un régime de retraite par répartition, car il ne [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] modifie pas la active.
La réforme de 2010 permet des économies substantielles mais transitoires. A l'échéance 2020, le recul de l'?ge légal et de l'?ge du taux plein à, respectivement, 62 et 67 ans permettrait une économie de l'ordre de 9 milliards [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] d'euros.
Le solde du déficit serait [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] comblé par les dispositions connexes prises pour les ressources des régimes (basculement de cotisations entre le régime [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] d'assurance ch?mage et la branche vieillesse, hausse du taux d'imposition sur les plus hauts revenus, [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] prélèvements sur les revenus du capital...).
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Si le taux de ch?mage passait sous la [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] barre des 6,5 %, des transferts notables bénéficieraient aux caisses de retraite. C'est ce qui résulte de la réforme de 2010, basée sur un taux de ch?mage à 4,5 %. Le maintien d'un taux élevé interdirait en revanche tous de cotisations entre l'assurance-ch?mage et la branche vieillesse.
Actuellement, le taux d'emploi des 55-64 ans est de 46 [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] % en moyenne [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] dans l' à 27 pays. La France, avec un taux de 39,7 % en 2010, est au-dessous de la moyenne en raison de la faiblesse du taux des 60-64 ans, qui ressort [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] à 17 %, et de celui des plus de 65 ans, qui est de 2 %.