Guardians of Grail

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'Light at the conclusion of equity tunnel',[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
The short-lived market euphoria within the Finance Minister's announcement of deferring General Anti Avoidance Rules (GARR) and the fact that it's not been withdrawn, in support of delay,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], has established concern regarding how the markets would behave.
Within an interview to Business Line,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Mr Dinesh Thakkar,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Chairman Managing Director,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Angel Broking,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Mumbai,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], sees light at the conclusion from the equity tunnel and exudes optimism that the Sensex may rise close to 22,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],000 level by March next. Excerpts:
The Government must shed the growing perception of policy inertia. It has to accelerate mining and land acquisition Bills and welcome more FDI,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], especially in areas such as aviation,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], retail and insurance. Infrastructure is really a perennial area where accelerating execution will do the economy an enormous amount of good.
Just how much levels market will go down further,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]? Do you consider only FII inflow would resurrect the markets,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]?
FII inflows do play a huge role. But look at what we should need,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], just about $20-25 billion annually that's a really small share from the global equity pie; so,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I am certain that we'll soon see better FII inflows too,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], considering that when compared with other countries, we have better fundamentals. Equities happen to be the top performing asset class over a longer timeframe,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], giving more than 15 per cent CAGR returns.
The Government has only delay GAAR not rolled it back. It is only a few of the short-term inflows that could need to re-evaluate whether they will be impacted or otherwise the small print on that's still awaited. Hence,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it is not clear if a few of the short-term inflows may get impacted eventually during the period of the coming year.
But,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], let's not forget that we are living inside a competitive environment. I don't think our Government would do anything impractical that will materially slow down foreign fund inflows. However,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], whatever tax regimes emerge, they'll hopefully be at par with other emerging countries.
How do you want the Indian investors to tailor their investment decisions during this year and post-GAAR enforcement,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]?
Indian markets are once more trading cheap,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], following the sharp rally in January,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which many people missed out. I believe the markets will appear to factors such as inflation,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], monsoons,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], crude prices and Government action for direction.
At present,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the outlook for monsoon is positive,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], so that is one positive thing. I'd continue to look in the inflation index,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], because,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], if that throws up a positive surprise,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it could supply the necessary headroom for interest rates to come down more significantly,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and lay the platform for GDP and earnings growth to pick up.
Because the markets increasingly discount FY14 earnings too,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I think the valuations will look reasonably cheap. Simultaneously,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], reducing inflation and rates of interest should enhance the future outlook throughout the second half of FY13,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], because the outlook for FY14 earnings growth also increases.
I believe a multiple of 15x to FY14 earnings will then become more appropriate,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which translates into a Sensex target close to 22,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],000 by the end of March 2013.
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