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5 Reasons Investors Shouldn't Bail on Japan,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
Usually when the Japanese economy makes headlines,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it's for the wrong reasons. The nation's public debt-to-GDP ratio clocks in at 225 percent than three times as high as that of the United States. Japan continues to be held in a deflationary struggle for decades, and it is economy is unseen signs and symptoms of recovering in the near future,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], particularly in the aftermath of last week's earthquake and tsunami,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and amid concerns in regards to a damaged nuclear plant. But despite its hardships,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Japan continues to be a legitimate force on the planet economy,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and several trade partners, including the Usa and China, depend on exports from a range of Japanese companies. News Score.]
Crises breed overreaction. Before Friday, the final big earthquake hit Japan in January 1995. 6 months after the quake, the Nikkei 225 Index was down 25 percent, according to Bespoke Investment Group. But towards the end of the season, the index regained all its losses. When it comes to major market-moving events like natural disasters, investors generally sell first and ask questions later. "You always have to look at special situations where fear and greed creep in as potential opportunities, because usually pendulum swings a bit too much the other way,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]," says Christian Magoon, CEO of asset management consultant firm Magoon Capital. Bear in mind, however, that the 1995 quake's damage didn't include a nuclear plant.
Pro-business government. Late this past year, Prime Minister Naoto Kan announced that Japan will cut its corporate tax rate the highest on the planet 5 percentage points, down to 35 %. "[The government is] doing everything they possibly can to help Japanese companies,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]," says Neil Hennessy, chief investment officer for Hennessy Funds, which includes two Japan-focused funds under management. The Bank of Japan has additionally taken an aggressive role in trying to create liquidity in the Japanese market by buying up hundreds of vast amounts of dollars' price of Japanese securities. "Both sides from the aisle will work toward fixing what's broken now in Japan," Hennessy says.
It's cheap. Even before the Nikkei Index's massive sell-off now, Hennessy says the country's stocks were cheap from a valuation standpoint. Based on his price-to-sales ratio estimates, Japan is about 3 or 4 times cheaper than its BRIC counterparts fast-growing markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
[See The situation for (And Against) European Stocks,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych].]
Audrey Kaplan, manager from the Federated InterContinental Fund,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which had about 15 percent of their assets invested in Japan by the end of February,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], is cautiously optimistic. "If we're able to get some resolution round the nuclear situation, the sell-off could be a very attractive opportunity to buy, and we would consider shifting from neutral to overweight [in Japan]," she says. "We're simply looking for additional clarity."
It's still the earth's third largest economy. While we're not forecasting stellar growth for Japan in the near future,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], still it remains the world's third largest economy, behind the United States and China. Before the earthquake hit, the International Monetary Fund expected japan economy to grow by only 1.6 percent in 2011. (America,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], however, is expected to develop by 3 %.) But this natural disaster comes at a time when the global economy seems to have turned the corner. "On the positive side, we were in a strong global recovery," Kaplan says. As the fallout from the nuclear reactors is still yet to be determined, "there has not been permanent damage to the industrial base," she says. The likes of Toyota have temporarily turn off manufacturing plants, but these may be short-term setbacks.
Japanese companies rely on exports. It's important to keep in mind that the Japanese economy is primarily driven by its exports. When you check out Japanese companies,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Hennessy says,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], "Remember you're not purchasing the Japanese economy, you're investing in global firms that are actually situated in Japan." Slow growth in Japan's domestic economy doesn't invariably translate into low returns for that country's stocks.
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